Greek debacle not quite terminal for the EUR

Fears the Greek debt crisis is snowballing out of control have hit asset markets in recent days, underlined most clearly on the currency side by the slide in EUR/USD from the 1.4697 high trade on June 7th back down to the 1.4100 area. But for the moment it doesn't appear to be a significant breakdown on the EUR chart with very solid support so far untroubled at 1.4000. In fact we'd probably need to see the 1.3770 and 1.3820~ area (200-DMA) fail to suggest that we're on for a more prolonged decline from here. Note at the onset of the European debt crisis this pair traded down to 1.1877. Being short prior to such a break risks leaving one exposed to politics - which ultimately the whole EUR project is. It's worth keeping an eye on the dollar index (DXY) - where the EUR obviously carries a significant weight - which looks slightly more constructive on the chart and would be better placed to benefit from any stabilisation/improvement in US data in the coming weeks while still offering exposure to the Greek tragedy/bearish EUR theme.